Geopolitical Tensions are Shaping the Future of our Oceans

The urgency of halting ocean degradation and unlocking the promise of a sustainable blue economy has never been greater. Yet, as the third U.N. Ocean Conference convenes from June 9-13 in Nice, France, this mission unfolds against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tension: great power rivalries, trade disputes, and a fraying rules-based world order are steadily eroding the trust and institutions essential for genuine collaboration. 

The very notion of shared destiny and collective goals is fading. The U.S. administration has even declared that it “rejects and denounces” the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals—among them, “Goal 14: Life Below Water,” which forms the bedrock of these conferences and other global efforts aimed at conserving and sustainably using the ocean. But the stakes stretch far beyond marine ecosystems. What unfolds in the ocean will shape the future of life on land.

The ocean is humanity’s greatest global commons and the foundation of life on Earth. It is a single, interconnected body of water, as the saying often goes, “carrying riches and resources, pollution and problems, from coast to coast.” The blue economy is projected to grow faster than global GDP in the coming decades. Looking ahead, the ocean must become even more central to building better lives for more people.

To deliver clean, reliable, and affordable energy to industries, nations, and communities, offshore wind farms, floating solar parks, and kinetic energy harvested from waves, currents, and tides must form a major part of the solution. A low- and zero-emission international merchant fleet is crucial to ensuring the continued flow of seaborne trade that underpins global commerce and secures the movement of food and energy across the world. To expand total food production and strengthen the resilience of global supply chains, scaling up sustainable aquaculture and ensuring responsible international management of wild fish stocks will be essential. These efforts will also ease pressure on land ecosystems and reduce the consumption of scarce freshwater resources.

Moreover, a clean, healthy, and productive ocean is at the heart of the fight against climate change. Nature-based marine solutions and maritime industries are estimated to offer up to a third of the emissions reductions needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Read more: Fishing Communities in the Philippines Are Fighting for their Future as Waters Rise

Unlocking this immense potential requires elevated ambition and renewed global cooperation. There have, encouragingly, been signs of progress. The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework—adopted in 2022 with the goal of reversing nature loss by 2030—and ongoing negotiations under the International Maritime Organization to decarbonize shipping provide reasons for optimism. Yet, as I explore in my recently published book, The Ocean:  How it has Formed Our World—and will Shape our Destiny, today’s geopolitical currents are pulling in the opposite direction. Major powers are turning inward and against each other, while protectionism, populism, and divisive nationalism are on the rise. In this turbulent landscape, the ocean—ever a driver and theatre of global affairs—is once again at the center.

Around the world, powerful nations—and many smaller ones—are expanding naval capabilities and reinforcing coastal defenses. These moves aim to protect coastlines, secure maritime trade routes, assert oceanic claims, and bolster global influence. As terrestrial resources dwindle, competition for fish stocks, seabed minerals, and other marine resources is intensifying.

This maritime tension is further fuelled by the world’s shifting centers of demographic, economic, and diplomatic gravity—from the north-western to the south-eastern hemisphere. Unlike other continents, which are landscapes surrounded by ocean, Southeast Asia is a “seascape”—an ocean enclosed by land. This unique geography heightens both the necessity for cooperation and the risk of conflict over marine spaces.

Just as other parts of the rules-based world order are under strain, so too is the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea—the so-called Constitution of the Ocean. The United States has unilaterally expanded its continental shelf, approved deep-sea mining in national and international waters without waiting for global rules, and exited negotiations to curb shipping emissions. Meanwhile, China continues to reject the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling on disputed South China Sea territories, citing “historical rights” to assert its claims.

To achieve a meaningful outcome at the U.N. Conference in Nice, the international community must rally in a spirit of solidarity and shared purpose. Yet the prevailing winds are those of geopolitical rivalry and division, turning our greatest global commons into an increasingly contested and perilous domain. That is a course we simply cannot afford. The opportunity cost —in terms of sustainable growth, prosperity, and planetary stability—is immense. If ever there was a time for bold, responsible action, it is now. The moment calls for genuine ocean leadership: visionary, inclusive, and resolute. Without a clean, healthy and productive ocean, our collective future is in jeopardy.

Sturla Henriksen is Special Adviser, Ocean, to the U.N. Global Compact, co-chair of the G20 Ocean group under the Presidency of South Africa, and author of The Ocean: How It Has Formed Our World—and Will Shape Our Destiny (Hero/Legend Times Group, UK, 2025). The views expressed his own, not any organization.