How a New Pope Is Chosen—and Who It Could Be

Pope Francis passed away at age 88 on April 21, just a day after an Easter Sunday appearance at St. Peter’s Square, where he gave well-wishes to thousands of Catholic supporters. The Vatican said Monday that Francis died after a stroke.

Born Jorge Mario Bergoglio, Francis was elected Pope in 2013 after his predecessor Pope Benedict XVI became the first Pope to resign in about 600 years. Francis, chosen as TIME’s 2013 Person of the Year, became the first Latin American pontiff when he took the reins of the religious institution. Over his term, Francis became known for his humility and calls for peace during major global challenges, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Gaza humanitarian crisis.

Read More: Pope Francis, the ‘World’s Parish Priest’ Who Led in an Era of Crisis, Dies at 88

As the world mourns Francis and commemorates his life’s legacy, his death also kickstarts a leadership transition period at the Vatican known as the interregnum, during which there is no Pope in power (referred to as sede vacante, or the “vacant seat”).

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Here’s what to know about how the next Pope will be selected—and who some of the frontrunners are. 

What happens when a Pope dies? 

After the Pope dies, the Vatican’s traditional nine days of mourning called the novendiales begin.

The election of a new Pope begins between 15 to 20 days after the death. The camerlengo, a cardinal in the Catholic Church, is in charge of organizing the election in a process known as the conclave, which was recently dramatized in the award-winning 2024 film Conclave.

Read More: In the Vatican Movie Conclave, Big Secrets Are Revealed. Here Are Three Real Life Papal Conclaves Marked by Controversy

The actual election, however, is preceded by general congregations that are called both to discuss the growing challenges facing the Catholic Church. The general congregations must be attended by all cardinals who “are not legitimately impeded,” according to the Apostolic Constitution.

Cardinals are special bishops and other Vatican officials who serve as the Pope’s counselors and visually distinguish themselves with a red cloak. There are more than 250 total cardinals, all of whom are men and most of whom come from Europe, according to the Vatican. While all cardinals can participate in the daily meetings that occur prior to the election, only 120 cardinals—all of whom have to be under the age of 80—can actually vote in the conclave. It is not clear how the 120 voters are selected.

In December, Francis appointed 21 new Cardinals, hailing from six different continents and many of whom reflect more modern and progressive ideals, such as support for inclusivity of LGBTQ+ Catholics, according to NPR. Overall, it is believed that Francis will have personally selected about 80% of those who will choose his successor.

Read More: Did Pope Francis ‘Pack’ the Conclave?

Typically, the electorate holds a mass to ask for spiritual guidance before the papal election takes place, according to the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB).

How does the voting process work?

At the Vatican, the electors stay in the Domus Sanctae Marthae. It’s where Francis chose to live, in a two-room suite, rather than the posh papal apartments of the Apostolic Palace. Typically, the electorate begins its work with a mass to ask for spiritual guidance, according to the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops (USCCB).

The conclave is an act of supreme secrecy. Vatican City becomes extremely regulated, as cardinals are not permitted to communicate with anyone “outside the area where the election is taking place, except in cases of proven and urgent necessity,” per the Apostolic Constitution. Following the funeral rites and mass for a deceased Pope, the electors then process to the Sistine Chapel, where they take an oath of discretion, and close the doors to the public.

Electors all vote secretly via ballots that read in summum pontificem, or “I elect as supreme pontiff. ”The twice-folded ballots are placed in urns and counted by three cardinals chosen by a random draw from the electors to be scrutineers. Votes are then recorded and read aloud to all cardinals present. The process continues until a candidate receives two-thirds of the vote, per USCCB. 

The process is governed by the Vatican constitution known in Latin as Universi Dominici Gregis, or “the Lord’s whole flock.” First issued by St. John Paul II in 1996, it used to allow for a new pope to be elected by a simple majority—rather than two-thirds—after 33 rounds of ballots starting on the second day of the conclave. But it was amended by Benedict XVI to remove the provision in 2007. Instead, a long-drawn conclave would be decided by a runoff between the top two candidates (that excludes the two candidates from voting) until one receives a two-thirds majority.

The public is kept abreast of the voting process through smoke signals created by the burning of ballots. White smoke means that cardinals have selected a new Pope, while black smoke means another round of voting has to take place.

Once the conclave elects a Pope, the dean of the College of Cardinals—currently, Italian Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re—asks him if he accepts the title, and the candidate is dressed and picks his papal name before he walks out to the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica. There, the senior cardinal deacon—who at the time of Francis’ death was French Cardinal Dominique Mamberti—tells the crowd assembled below, “Habemus Papam,” (Latin for “we have a Pope”) and introduces the Church’s new leader by the name he has chosen.

Who is eligible to become the next Pope?

The College of Cardinal’s Report, a website aimed at providing more information on potential successors, has identified 22 cardinals who it believes are “papabili,” or most likely to be elected Pope. Some of the qualities a cardinal considered papabili should possess include humility, zeal for the Catholic faith, and the promotion of goodness, according to the report. “But predicting the next Pope is notoriously precarious and he may be none of those we propose,” it caveats. Pope Francis, for example, was not on many papabili lists in 2013, because many considered him to be too old.

Despite calls for greater leadership opportunities for women within the Catholic Church during last year’s synod, a summit among Catholic leaders, women are still ineligible to be ordained as priests and therefore are also ineligible for the papacy. 

While not explicitly outlined in any specific Church regulations, every Pope has had the status of a cardinal before they took their role as pontiff. 

Here are some of the most discussed candidates who may be considered to be the next Pope:

Jean-Marc Aveline

Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, is well-known for his support for migrants. That stance is personal, as the cardinal himself fled his home due to war when he was just four years old. His family eventually settled in Marseille, France, a city with a substantial Muslim population, making him keen to interfaith dialogues. Aveline has a doctorate in theology. He is reportedly Pope Francis’ “favorite” possible successor, according to the College of Cardinals Report, though he differs from Francis in that he expressed caution at blessings for same-sex couples, as opposed to individuals.

Joseph Tobin

Joseph Tobin, 72, is a highly progressive candidate for the Church and has amassed substantial influence in the U.S. Tobin has voiced avid support for LGBTQ+ Catholics, women in the Church, and migrants, even going against then-Indiana Gov. Mike Pence over the politician’s efforts to stop the resettlement of Syrian refugees. He previously worked in the role of a second-in-command of the Vatican office before his current role as the Archbishop of Newark, New Jersey. In that position, he’s dealt with the high-profile Theodore McCarrick sexual assault scandal.

Juan Jose Omella

Juan Jose Omella, 79, worked as an advisor to Pope Francis prior to his passing. The Spanish cardinal earned his red cloak just one year after he was given the title of archbishop. He has spoken strongly against abortion, but has made controversial comments regarding reports of sexual abuse within the Catholic Chruch in Spain, calling the estimated figures that fell in the hundreds of thousands “lies.” He followed that by saying that “We will not tire of asking for forgiveness from the victims and working for their healing.” Omella studied theology and philosophy at the Seminary of Zaragoza.

Pietro Parolin

Italian Pietro Parolin, 70, has been serving as the Vatican’s Secretary of State since 2013 and is the highest-ranking cardinal in the electing conclave. He is considered an expert on a number of geo-political issues. From 2002 to 2009, he was undersecretary of state for Relations with States and directed relations with Vietnam, North Korea, Israel, and China.  

Péter Erdő

Péter Erdő, 72, would be a more conservative pick for the top post. In 2003, at 51, the Hungarian national was made one of the Church’s youngest cardinals after being appointed by John Paul II. He has opposed divorced and remarried individuals taking communion, believing that marriage is indissoluble, and is against same-sex marriage. His stance on immigration, a key issue in Hungary, has also come under fire in the past: he once compared taking in refugees to human smuggling, but is said to have changed his stance after a meeting with Pope Francis, who was much more liberal on issues of immigration and refugees.

Peter Turkson

Peter Turkson, 76, would be a progressive pick for the Church. Turkson, an archbishop from Ghana, was first named cardinal by Pope John Paul II in 2003. Turkson was selected by Pope Francis to help lead special assemblies advocating for development in the pan-Amazon region, and a council for justice and peace. In March, the University of Dayton announced that Turkson would be receiving an honorary doctorate this year, calling him a “tireless advocate for the poor and marginalized, championing the cause of human dignity.” At least six other colleges have also recognized him with an honorary doctorate.

Luis Antonio Tagle

If elected, Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, of the Philippines, would be the first modern-day Asian Pope. Currently serving as pro-prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization, Tagle is more left-leaning, having spoken out against the isolating impact of the Church’s harsh language against same-sex marriage. 

“Yes, I think even the language has changed already, the harsh words that were used in the past to refer to gays and divorced and separated people, the unwed mothers etc, in the past they were quite severe,” he said in 2015. “Many people who belonged to those groups were branded and that led to their isolation from the wider society.

Mario Grech

Mario Grech, 68, is the secretary general of the Synod. The Malta-born cardinal has expressed his disapproval of divorce and in vitro fertilization, but in the same breath called on the Catholic church to accept divorced and gay couples. The Church should be “an experience of God” instead of a “moral agency” he told the Sunday Times of Malta in a 2015 interview. Under his current role in the church, Grech was in charge of overseeing the Synod of Synodality—when religious leaders gather to consult on the future direction of the Church—making him well-connected among bishops and cardinals. He has been outspoken in his support of migrants, calling on Europe to better address the humanitarian issue at-hand. He added: “It is also important in such a delicate sector not to allow institutional discrimination between the well-off foreigners and the poor, those coming from the East and those coming from Africa.”