Why Voters Everywhere Are Fed Up With Incumbents

With so many elections in big countries this year, it’s a good time to look at how the politics of democracies are shifting. But this is no simple turn to the left or right. In France, Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally scored big gains in the first round of this year’s legislative elections, but it was an alliance of leftist parties that surged in the second round. In Britain, the center-left Labour Party won a landslide victory over the center-right Conservatives. In Germany, the U.S., and Canada, it’s the right that registers major gains in current polling.

If we look deeper than ideological labels—and beyond voters in Europe and the United States—an undeniable trend comes into focus: Voters are fed up with incumbents. In India, the party of still-popular Prime Minister Narendra Modi expected an easy win with a record number of parliamentary seats earlier this year. Instead, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party lost its parliamentary majority and must rely on partners in other parties to continue his reforms. In South Africa, the African National Congress lost its majority for the first time in the country’s post-apartheid history, falling from 57.9% of the vote in 2019 to a stunning 40.2% this year. To form a government, the humbled ANC has been forced to turn to the Democratic Alliance, its main opposition.

In short, the global democratic trend this year is a resounding rejection of the status quo. French elections were less a victory for the left or right than a noisy repudiation of the center—namely, the increasingly unpopular President Emmanuel Macron. In the U.K., voters handed victory to Labour not because new PM Keir Starmer’s party made a compelling case for a specific set of reforms, but because so many British voters rejected the Conservative Party after 14 years in power under five prime ministers.

Read More: Macron’s Disastrous Election

In the United States, President Biden’s campaign was in serious trouble well before his stumbling debate performance and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. Canada’s Liberal Party, led by third-term prime minister Justin Trudeau, trails opposition Conservatives by 18 points. The approval rating for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has spiraled from 73% in March 2022 to just 28% last month. Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida scored a July approval rating of 15.5%. His Liberal Democratic Party will remain in power, but only after replacing Kishida.

There are exceptions to the trend. Handpicked successors won elections this year in Taiwan and Mexico, but that may be because fear of China makes Taiwan the most special of special cases, and Mexico’s presidents are limited by law to a single term. (Claudia Sheinbaum does represent landmark change, however, because she will be Mexico’s first female and first Jewish president.)

The political cultures and dynamics in these countries vary widely. American voters worry Biden is too old to continue the job. Kishida is blamed for a party fundraising scandal. French voters tell pollsters that Macron is arrogant and aloof. India is roiled by accusations that Modi has become too powerful. South Africa’s ANC is riven by internal rivalries between President Cyril Ramaphosa and his predecessor Jacob Zuma.

But though every democracy is different, they share a common problem. The aftereffects of the pandemic have touched the lives and livelihoods of billions of people. Local economies continue to suffer as supply chains remain knotted, and inflation is stubbornly high. Government subsidies are drying up, and economic contractions, particularly in poor countries, feed migration, which fuels anger at governments in richer countries for failing to manage it.

It’s tough times for incumbents no matter where they govern—and voters have still more anger to vent.

Correction, July 19

The original version of this story misstated Cyril Ramaphosa’s and Jacobs Zuma’s roles in South Africa’s government. Ramaphosa is President, not Prime Minister, and Zuma is a former President, not former Prime Minister.